What happened to the jobs a 2013 study called most automatable?

How this list was made

• Rows are the 135 jobs on our timelines that carry Frey and Osborne's published 2013 probability under the same occupation code, with BLS OEWS counts for May 2013 and May 2025 on one unbroken basis. Ordered by the 2013 probability, highest first.
• The answer and the chart count jobs at 0.90 or higher; Frey and Osborne themselves called anything above 0.7 high risk.
• Frey and Osborne scored 171 of their occupations 0.90 or higher. The chart shows the 39 of them we can follow; the rest are not on our timelines, or we cannot follow them on one unchanged occupation code with BLS counts for both years.
• The "47% of jobs" in the page title is Frey and Osborne's own headline estimate ("about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk"): the share of US jobs in occupations they put above 0.7. It describes what computers could technically do, not a count of jobs lost, and this page does not test it.
• The change derived by Future History is computed from the two BLS counts.
• Every change here spans May 2021, when BLS moved to a model-based estimate that pools three years of survey data, so the counts at the two ends were made in different ways. A row is marked when its step from May 2020 to May 2021 is at least 3 times the size of its typical other one-year step and at least a quarter the size of the whole change shown. 37 of the 135 rows are marked.

What these numbers cannot tell you

• Frey and Osborne gave no date. They estimated what computers could technically do over "some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two", not how many jobs would go, so this is not a test of a forecast they made.
• A job can grow for reasons that have nothing to do with automation, and shrink for others. The counts say what happened, not why.
• In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.
• BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

Left out because the occupation code changed

• Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity: Frey and Osborne scored it under a 2010 occupation code that the 2018 codes renumbered, so the 2013 and latest counts may not cover the same workers.
• Computer Programmers: Frey and Osborne scored it under a 2010 occupation code that the 2018 codes renumbered, so the 2013 and latest counts may not cover the same workers.
• Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors: The 2018 occupation codes split, merged or renamed it, so the 2013 and latest counts may not cover the same workers.
• Fitness Trainers and Instructors: The 2018 occupation codes split, merged or renamed it, so the 2013 and latest counts may not cover the same workers.
• Light Truck Drivers: The 2018 occupation codes split, merged or renamed it, so the 2013 and latest counts may not cover the same workers.
• Special Education Teachers, Middle School: Frey and Osborne scored it under a 2010 occupation code that the 2018 codes renumbered, so the 2013 and latest counts may not cover the same workers.
• Stockers and Order Fillers: Frey and Osborne scored it under a 2010 occupation code that the 2018 codes renumbered, so the 2013 and latest counts may not cover the same workers.

Sources

• Frey and Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment", appendix
• BLS OEWS national estimates, May 2013 and May 2025
• BLS, OEWS notice on the May 2021 estimates (new model-based method, MB3)
• BLS, 2010 SOC to 2018 SOC crosswalk (November 2017)
• Michael J. Handel, BLS, Monthly Labor Review, July 2022: "Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation"
• Christine Machovec, Michael J. Rieley and Emily Rolen, BLS, Monthly Labor Review, February 2025: "Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case studies"
• Each row also names the exact sources for its own figures.

Explore these jobs by industry

• Admin & Office
• Manufacturing
• Construction
• Sales
• Transportation
• Engineering

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