Time Machine

Security Guards

Scrub through 186 years of this role's history — from when it first emerged, through every wave of technology that reshaped it, to the cited projections for where it's heading next.

Nightstick + lantern + whistle (the watchman's kit)

Watchclock guard-tour system (Newman / Detex, 1878 onward, patented 1901)

Analog CCTV + VCR recording (the monitor wall era)

AI gunshot detection + loitering detection + Flock Safety LPR + facial recognition (pervasive AI sensing)

Two-way radio / walkie-talkie (post-WWII commercial deployment)

1850187519001925195019752000now

Drag the dot, click anywhere on the track, or use ← → arrow keys (Shift for 10-year jumps, PgUp/PgDn for 25).

2026

Known today as Security Guards (BLS SOC 33-9032)

US Employment

1.20M

BLS OOH 2024 edition cites approximately 1.2 million security guard jobs as of 2023. This figure is consistent with BLS OOH projection methodology, which uses 2023 as the base year for the 2023-2033 outlook cycle. The 2023 figure represents a recovery from any COVID-era disruption and reflects the sustained demand from commercial real estate, healthcare, education, and logistics sectors. BLS OEWS 2023 page returns HTTP 403 from the curation environment; the 1.2M figure is sourced from OOH narrative.

Median Annual Wage

$38,370

Source: BLS-OEWS

Tool of the era · AI gunshot detection + loitering detection + Flock Safety LPR + facial recognition (pervasive AI sensing)

By 2020, the AI analytics layer in private security had expanded far beyond camera-monitoring into a suite of autonomous sensing capabilities. Flock Safety (founded 2017), which began as a neighborhood license-plate reader network for law enforcement, had expanded by 2025 to operate in over 5,000 communities across 49 states performing over 20 billion vehicle scans per month — technology that private security operations now integrated into campus perimeter protection. AI loitering detection (a person remaining stationary in a restricted zone for more than a configurable time threshold) and AI gunshot/sound-anomaly detection became standard features of commercial security platforms. Facial recognition databases, controversially, began integrating with access control at some corporate and retail installations. The cumulative effect of these capabilities is that a modern security operations center with AI tools can monitor a physical campus with the situational awareness that previously required two to three times the guard headcount — but someone still has to respond when the alarm fires.

The AI-sensing era has not eliminated the security guard; it has changed the ratio between human response officers and electronic sensors. Large campuses that previously staffed ten patrol guards per shift now staff three or four response officers backed by an AI-monitored camera and sensor network. The remaining humans are harder to automate: they speak to distressed employees, de-escalate the person at the front desk who cannot get access to an office, and make the physical-presence decision that no camera can make.

Projection cone · present → 2034

What credible sources project

Scrub the slider past now to anchor each scenario on the scrubber. The spread you see below is the range of futures credible sources project for this role.

Presence-as-deterrent floor scenario (human escalation cannot automate)

→ 2033

+5%

Optimistic scenario grounded in the irreducible human functions in security: physical deterrence by visible presence (a uniformed person is a different deterrent than a camera), legal authority (most jurisdictions require a licensed human officer to make a citizen's arrest or detain an individual), customer service at commercial and hospitality venues, and escalation judgment in ambiguous situations. If AI cameras and robots handle the routine surveillance and patrol functions while human guard deployment concentrates in the presence-as-deterrent and escalation roles, headcount growth is possible as the broader category of "security-related work" expands with AI monitoring of more spaces. This is the bull case: more premises monitored by AI, staffed with smaller human response teams, resulting in a slight net growth in security personnel as total monitored premises expands faster than AI displaces positions per site.

BLS Occupational Outlook 2023-33

→ 2033

+2%

BLS Employment Projections 2023-33 cycle. Published employment change for security guards and gambling surveillance officers as a group: approximately +2%, described as "slower than the average for all occupations." Despite modest employment growth, BLS projects approximately 162,400 annual openings — a large number driven almost entirely by replacement need (turnover in this occupation is among the highest of any service occupation). The +2% net-employment figure reflects modest demand growth offset by technology substitution and ongoing consolidation of the contract-security market. BLS explicitly cites continued demand from commercial real estate, healthcare, schools, and transportation facilities as growth drivers, against the backdrop of AI cameras and remote-monitoring tools reducing the need for fixed-post guards.

Eloundou et al. — 'GPTs are GPTs' (2023)

→ 2028

-3%

GPT-4 task-by-task LLM exposure labeling on O*NET tasks. Security guards score very low on LLM exposure: the core tasks — patrolling premises, monitoring CCTV, checking credentials, responding to alarms, detaining suspects — are not text-based work that a language model can perform. The occupation's high Frey & Osborne automation risk comes from physical robotics, not LLMs. The -3% estimate represents the conservative near-term impact from AI-assisted tools (AI analytics platforms reducing monitor-operator headcount) rather than from robotics-driven physical patrol displacement. Eloundou et al. classify security guards in the low-LLM-exposure tier; the real risk for this occupation comes from non-LLM AI (computer vision, autonomous mobile robots) that the Eloundou framework does not score.

AI-augmentation scenario (cameras replace posts, robots replace patrols)

→ 2034

-15%

Scenario analysis based on documented patrol-robot deployments (Knightscope, Cobalt), AI camera analytics adoption (Verkada, Eagle Eye), and the structural economics of the industry. If AI cameras and patrol robots continue to penetrate the fixed-post and routine-patrol segments of the market — historically the largest components of guard headcount — while the response-officer and customer-facing segments remain human, the net employment trajectory could decline 10-20% from the 2023 baseline by 2034. The pessimistic end of this scenario assumes that: (a) Knightscope-style outdoor robots become cost-competitive with minimum-wage guard labor in 50%+ of outdoor patrol applications; (b) AI camera analytics fully substitute for monitor-room headcount in commercial installations; and (c) the remaining response-and-escalation workforce is 60-70% of the 2023 level. The +2% BLS figure is the optimistic anchor; the -15% scenario is the pessimistic tail if hardware costs for autonomous patrol continue to fall.

Frey & Osborne (2013)

→ 2033

-35%

Gaussian-process classifier on O*NET task features. Frey & Osborne assigned Security Guards a probability of computerization of approximately 0.84 — placing them in the high-risk tier of the 702-occupation dataset. The bottleneck factors they identified were relatively weak: security-guard tasks involve some social intelligence (responding to people, de-escalation) but are not primarily social; they involve manual mobility but mostly routine patrolling rather than the complex manipulation that protects electricians or surgeons. The 0.84 score reflects F&O's assessment that autonomous patrol (robots), AI surveillance (cameras), and remote monitoring could substitute for the routine physical-presence functions that dominate guard hours. The -35% figure represents a conservative displacement below the full F&O probability if realized over the decade. In practice, employment has remained near 1 million through 2024 — suggesting F&O's timeline for automation penetration was optimistic — though Knightscope and Cobalt robot deployments validate the direction of the finding.

Today, in this role

What's shifting in the work right now

The historical view above shows how this role has moved. This is the present-day detail: which AI tools are picking up which tasks, where the edge still is, and the natural directions this work can grow.

What's changing in your day

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting — and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you here

Write incident reports documenting occurrences during the shift — recording the time, location, parties involved, sequence of events, actions taken, and disposition of each incident, and submitting the completed report through an electronic security management platform for supervisor review and client records.^[1],[11]

Tools picking this up

Digital Guard Tour / GPS Patrol Verification ↗

Where your edge is

Incident reporting is the task most exposed to AI assistance in the near term. Digital Guard Tour and platforms like TrackTik already auto-populate the time, location, checkpoint scans, and responding guard identity from GPS and NFC data — the guard only needs to describe what happened and what they did. Some platforms are beginning to use voice-to-text capture during the incident itself to reduce post-shift report writing time. The discipline that remains irreplaceable: describing the facts accurately in plain language, capturing the details that matter legally (exact time of contact, exact words used, whether the subject complied voluntarily), and flagging when an incident may have liability implications for the client. Write the report like a police officer would: who, what, where, when, how — no adjectives, no speculation, just documented observation.

AI is sitting alongside you here

Monitor AI-assisted video surveillance systems — watching live camera feeds aggregated in a video management system (VMS), reviewing AI-generated alerts for motion anomalies, loitering, perimeter breaches, or access violations, confirming true alarms and dismissing false positives, and dispatching a physical response or notifying emergency services when the alert is verified.^[1],[9],[12]

Tools picking this up

Verkada AI-Powered Deterrence and VSaaS Platform ↗Avigilon Unity Video (Motorola Solutions) ↗Hakimo AI Operator ↗Scylla AI Video Analytics ↗

Where your edge is

Camera monitoring is the task most transformed by AI right now — and the biggest opportunity to move up. Verkada, Avigilon Unity, and Scylla AI filter false positives with 99%+ accuracy, which means the guards who can confidently use these platforms spend almost no time on phantom alarms and respond only to verified threats. The skill that separates a $18/hr monitor from a $28/hr remote operations specialist is the ability to configure AI alert thresholds, understand why the system flagged an event, and make rapid verification decisions. Learn your VMS: what 'loitering' is configured to mean on your site, how Avigilon's Appearance Search works, and how to pull a multi-camera timeline for an incident investigation. Those skills are the same ones security directors say they cannot find enough of in 2025.

AI is sitting alongside you here

Operate as a remote monitoring officer — from a central station, monitoring camera feeds for multiple sites simultaneously using AI-assisted VMS dashboards, triaging AI-generated alerts, issuing verbal deterrence through site speakers, dispatching mobile patrol units or emergency services to confirmed incidents, and maintaining a shift log of all monitored events.^[4],[13],[5]

Tools picking this up

Hakimo AI Operator ↗Verkada AI-Powered Deterrence and VSaaS Platform ↗Avigilon Unity Video (Motorola Solutions) ↗

Where your edge is

Remote monitoring officer is the highest-growth and highest-pay variant of the security guard role in 2025-2026. ASIS data shows AI-literate guards who can monitor 10-30 sites from a central operations center in higher demand than any other guard category. The role requires comfort operating multiple software interfaces simultaneously, the ability to triage AI alerts under time pressure, and clear verbal communication over speaker systems to deter threats at a distance. Pay is typically 20-40% above on-site guard rates for the same experience level, and the schedule (mostly indoor, no physical patrol) attracts guards who want longevity without the physical attrition. The fastest path to this role: get certified on Verkada, Avigilon, or Genetec platforms (vendor training programs exist for all three), and volunteer for any remote monitoring assignments your current employer offers.

Where this role is heading

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation — not exits, evolutions.

A direction you could grow

Security Managers

Security Manager (SOC 11-3013.01) is the natural promotion trajectory for an experienced guard or security officer — typically requiring 5-10 years of field experience, a demonstrated track record of competent incident management, and increasingly a certification such as CPP (Certified Protection Professional) or PSP (Physical Security Professional) from ASIS International. Security managers oversee guard forces (often 10-50+ officers), manage vendor relationships for camera systems and access control, develop site security plans, conduct threat assessments, and interact directly with C-suite leadership on physical security strategy. The AI tools that augment frontline guard work (Verkada, Avigilon, Hakimo) are the same tools a security manager must be able to evaluate, procure, configure, and supervise — so guards who develop technical fluency with these platforms now are building exactly the skills that security director roles require in 2025-2026. BLS OEWS 2024 median for Security Managers: $109,990/yr, nearly triple the security guard median of $38,370.

What you'd add

· ASIS Certified Protection Professional (CPP) or Physical Security Professional (PSP) certification

· Security operations management: guard scheduling, post orders, performance evaluation, progressive discipline

· Physical security technology: AI VMS configuration, access control system administration, alarm system management

· Threat and vulnerability assessment methodology: site surveys, risk registers, security plans

· Budget management and vendor contract negotiation for security services and equipment

What it takesSome new skills to pick up

Present-day sources

Sources

Every claim on this page traces back to one of the following. Updated 2026-05-30.

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