Monitor and record food temperatures to ensure food safety.[2]
Where your edge is
Time Machine
Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria
Scrub through 151 years of this role's history — from when it first emerged, through every wave of technology that reshaped it, to the cited projections for where it's heading next.
19001925195019752000now
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2026
Known today as Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria (BLS SOC 35-2012)
US Employment
466K
BLS OEWS May 2024 national estimate for SOC 35-2012, sourced from O*NET which reflects the same BLS establishment-survey figure. Healthcare and social assistance (38.2%) and educational services (31.3%) together account for approximately 69.5% of total 35-2012 employment. The 2024 figure is the baseline used in the BLS 2024–34 employment projections.
Median Annual Wage
$36,450
Source: BLS-OEWS
Tool of the era · COVID-era grab-and-go meal distribution + post-COVID universal free school meals expansion
COVID-19 school closures in spring 2020 forced a fundamental reorganization of how institutional cooks in K-12 settings delivered food. With dining rooms closed, many school districts converted kitchen staff to grab-and-go meal distribution operations — producing pre-packaged meals distributed from school parking lots or bus routes rather than served in cafeteria lines. USDA deployed Pandemic EBT to replace meals for an estimated 29–30 million children normally served by the NSLP. When schools fully reopened in fall 2021, the institutional cook workforce returned — but into an environment being reshaped by a new policy wave: by 2022–2023, eight states plus DC had passed legislation making universal free school meals permanent for all students regardless of income. Universal free meals programs expand the number of children eating school meals daily, requiring more volume production from the same kitchen infrastructure — a structural demand signal that is projected to sustain school institutional cook employment through the 2020s.
Universal free school meals policies in California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia (plus DC) create a structural floor under school institutional cook employment by expanding meal counts beyond the traditional free-and-reduced-price population.
Projection cone · present → 2034
What credible sources project
Scrub the slider past now to anchor each scenario on the scrubber. The spread you see below is the range of futures credible sources project for this role.
Elder-care expansion + universal free meals scenario
→ 2034
+6%
Optimistic scenario combining two structural demand tailwinds. The Baby Boomer cohort (born 1946–1964) began turning 80 in 2026; the 80+ population requiring nursing-home and assisted-living dietary services will grow approximately 50% over 2024–2034. If universal free school meals expand from the current 8 states + DC to 20+ states, K-12 institutional cook employment could grow by 15–20% beyond the BLS baseline. This scenario — demographic demand plus policy expansion — would push total 35-2012 employment to approximately 495,000 by 2034, a ~6% increase from the 2024 baseline. This is more optimistic than the BLS OOH projection but within the range of plausible outcomes if the political support for universal free school meals consolidates.
BLS National Employment Matrix 2024-34
→ 2034
+2%
BLS National Employment Matrix detailed projections for SOC 35-2012. Projected employment grows from 466,100 (2024) to approximately 475,400 (2034), an increase of 9,300 positions (+2%). Healthcare and social assistance (38.2% of employment) is the growth driver — aging Baby Boomers expanding nursing home and assisted-living facility dietary staffs. Educational services (31.3%) are projected to remain roughly flat or grow modestly as universal free meal policies expand meal counts. BLS annual job openings projection: approximately 69,700 per year, reflecting the high turnover characteristic of food service employment. The BLS characterizes this as "slower than average" growth.
O*NET / BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-34
→ 2034
+2%
O*NET summary for SOC 35-2012.00 reflecting BLS OOH 2024-34 projection cycle. Confirms the 2% ("slower than average") employment growth outlook through 2034, consistent with the National Employment Matrix figure. Healthcare sector demand (hospitals, nursing homes, assisted-living facilities) is cited as the primary growth vector. Educational foodservice demand is supported by universal free meal program expansion in multiple states. No material automation displacement is modeled — combi-ovens and AI-driven inventory tools augment rather than replace cook-level labor.
Eloundou et al. — "GPTs are GPTs" (2023)
→ 2028
+1%
GPT-4 task-by-task LLM exposure labeling on O*NET tasks for cook occupations. Institutional cooks score very low on LLM exposure — the core tasks (batch cooking proteins, managing combi-ovens, operating steam tables, monitoring food safety temperatures, portioning and serving) are physical and sensory tasks that a large language model cannot perform. The small positive projection reflects the augmentation scenario: AI tools (Sysco MyTrkr, US Foods Moxe) that handle menu costing and inventory forecasting for the institutional kitchen management layer potentially make the operation more financially stable, supporting steady employment rather than displacing it. The LLM threat to 35-2012 is marginal; the physical automation threat (combi-ovens, automated portioning) is real but decades-old and has not produced net job losses.
Frey & Osborne (2013)
→ 2030
-20%
Gaussian-process classifier on O*NET task features. Frey & Osborne (2013) rated cooks broadly at approximately 0.83 probability of computerization — in the high-risk tier. The F&O algorithm detected high task repetition, standardized recipe execution, and limited social perception requirements. Institutional cooks in 35-2012 score higher on this metric than restaurant cooks because institutional cooking is more batch-oriented and more procedurally standardized (federal nutrition requirements, cost-per-meal constraints) than à la carte restaurant cooking. However, a decade-plus after the F&O publication, institutional cook employment in 2024 is near its all-time high. The cooking itself has not been automated. The -20% scenario here represents the pessimistic interpretation of the F&O score — displacement of roughly one-fifth of the workforce through automation of the most procedurally standardized batch-cooking tasks (combi-oven scaling, automated portioning). Displayed as the pessimistic tail of the uncertainty cone.
Today, in this role
What's shifting in the work right now
The historical view above shows how this role has moved. This is the present-day detail: which AI tools are picking up which tasks, where the edge still is, and the natural directions this work can grow.
What's changing in your day
Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting — and what stays yours.
Cook foodstuffs according to menus, special dietary or nutritional restrictions, or numbers of portions to be served.[2]
Where your edge is
Rotate and store food supplies.[2]
Where your edge is
Present-day sources
Sources
Every claim on this page traces back to one of the following. Updated 2026-05-30.
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