Scrub through 123 years of this role's history — from when it first emerged, through every wave of technology that reshaped it, to the cited projections for where it's heading next.
Paper Form 1040 and pencil arithmetic (1913-1943)
Withholding tax + post-war mass filing (1943)
H&R Block franchise model — the national storefront preparer (1955)
IRS Direct File pilot (2024) + Intuit GenAI Tax Assist + AI-powered preparation
1925195019752000now
Drag the dot, click anywhere on the track, or use ← → arrow keys (Shift for 10-year jumps, PgUp/PgDn for 25).
2026
Known today as Tax Preparers (BLS SOC 13-2082)
US Employment
91K
BLS OEWS 2024 estimate for SOC 13-2082, as cited in O*NET and used as the BLS 2024-34 projection baseline. Median annual wage $50,560 ($24.31/hr). The recovery from the 2020 trough reflects the post-pandemic complexity surge: gig economy income reporting, cryptocurrency capital gains reporting requirements (IRS Notice 2014-21 enforced at scale by 2021-2024), employee retention credits, and Child Tax Credit advance reconciliation all generated demand from clients who had previously managed their own returns with DIY software.
Median Annual Wage
$50,560
Source: BLS-OEWS
Tool of the era · IRS Direct File pilot (2024) + Intuit GenAI Tax Assist + AI-powered preparation
Two parallel developments in 2024 accelerated the substitution pressure on the simplest end of the market. The IRS launched Direct File — a free, government-run, interview-based tax preparation tool — as a pilot in 12 states for the 2023 tax year, expanding to 25 states for the 2024 tax year. Direct File enrolled over 140,000 taxpayers in its first year, saving an estimated $160 per filer in preparation fees and generating approximately $90 million in refunds. It targeted exactly the segment of W-2 wage earners with straightforward tax situations that professional preparers least want to compete for (low margin, high volume, easily commoditized).
Simultaneously, Intuit introduced GenAI Tax Assist into TurboTax in 2024 — a large language model layer that could answer natural-language tax questions during return preparation, reducing the need for users to leave TurboTax and seek professional advice when encountering an unfamiliar tax situation. H&R Block had integrated IBM Watson AI for similar guidance purposes since 2017. By 2024-2025, ChatGPT and Claude were being used directly by filers to interpret tax rules before and after preparation.
The Trump administration suspended Direct File in November 2025 and the 2025 budget reconciliation bill mandated its elimination — partially restoring the market position of professional preparers in states where Direct File had gained traction. However, the technology infrastructure for free government filing now exists and can be rebuilt; the structural direction of travel toward commoditization of simple returns is not reversed by policy suspension alone.
BLS projects +6% employment growth for 13-2082 through 2034 — citing complex-return demand growth as the primary driver. This is the same projection it made for the prior cycle and reflects BLS's methodology of projecting from current policy and technology trajectories rather than from speculative AI adoption scenarios. Frey & Osborne's 0.99 probability is being realized selectively and slowly — substantially vindicated for simple returns, largely not yet realized for the complex-return market the occupation has retreated to.
Projection cone · present → 2034
What credible sources project
Scrub the slider past now to anchor each scenario on the scrubber. The spread you see below is the range of futures credible sources project for this role.
BLS Occupational Outlook 2024-34
→ 2034
+6%
BLS Employment Projections 2024-34 cycle. Published outlook for 13-2082: approximately +6% employment growth, with approximately 10,400 annual openings (new jobs + replacement need). Described as "faster than average." BLS cites continued demand for professional tax preparation services for complex returns — small business, self-employed, and clients with investment income — as the primary growth driver. The projection does not model AI adoption at the pace implied by Frey & Osborne or Eloundou et al. The +6% figure represents the most optimistic tail of the cone: it assumes the complex-return segment grows faster than AI-assisted DIY tools can absorb it, which has historically been true but is increasingly contested.
IRS Direct File displacement scenario
→ 2030
-20%
Curator scenario based on IRS Direct File program data. In its first year (2024 pilot, 12 states), Direct File processed 140,000 returns, saving an estimated $160/filer in preparation fees. Its 25-state expansion (2025) was on track to reach substantially more filers before the Trump administration suspended the program in November 2025. If Direct File or an equivalent government program were restored and reached 5-10 million filers per year (roughly 3-7% of all individual returns filed), the professional preparer market for simple returns would contract measurably. The -20% scenario represents the plausible middle case: Direct File or AI-assisted DIY captures the 10-15 million lowest-complexity returns still processed by professionals, while the complex-return segment holds. This is a curator-constructed scenario rather than a published research projection; it is included to represent the policy-driven substitution risk that purely task-based models do not capture.
Goldman Sachs (March 2023)
→ 2030
-46%
Goldman Sachs March 2023 "Potentially Large Effects of AI on Economic Growth" (Jan Hatzius et al.). Business and Financial Operations occupations — the BLS major group containing 13-2082 — are identified as having among the highest shares of tasks automatable by current generative AI. Tax preparation specifically scores near the top of that cluster for the same reasons as Frey & Osborne: rule-application to structured financial data. The -46% figure represents Goldman's estimate of the share of tasks in this occupational cluster that are automatable with current AI capability. This is a task-share estimate, not a net employment projection; actual employment outcomes depend on demand elasticity as prices fall and the mix of returns shifts toward complexity.
Eloundou et al. — "GPTs are GPTs" (2023)
→ 2028
-80%
GPT-4 task-by-task LLM exposure labeling on O*NET tasks for 13-2082. Tax preparation tasks are among the highest LLM-exposed in the Eloundou dataset: interpreting tax code provisions, completing standardized forms, identifying deductions, and writing correspondence with the IRS are all text-based, rule-governed tasks amenable to LLM assistance. The occupation likely scores in the highest tier of LLM exposure (γ near 1.0, β near 0.8-0.9). Reported here as -80% as a conservative reading of the β-weighted exposure. As with Frey & Osborne, "exposure" is capability — the share of tasks an LLM could assist with — not a net employment forecast. The critical question for this occupation is whether LLM tools accelerate the rate at which filers self-serve, or whether they are primarily adopted by preparers to handle more returns per hour.
Frey & Osborne (2013)
→ 2033
-99%
Gaussian-process classifier on O*NET task features. Frey & Osborne rated Tax Preparers (13-2082) at 0.99 probability of computerisation — the highest of any professional occupation studied across 702 occupations, and tied with a small number of highly routinized clerical roles. The task-set explanation is clear: tax preparation involves applying rule-based code provisions to structured financial data, producing a completed form — a task that is almost entirely information processing with minimal physical execution, social intelligence, or creative judgment. The -99% figure represents this extreme rating. In practice, 13 years after publication, simple returns are substantially automated (TurboTax, IRS Direct File) while the occupation has retreated upmarket into complexity niches that the model did not distinguish. Frey & Osborne modeled the full task set, not the mix of returns in the market; the occupation survived not by avoiding automation but by migrating to the unautomated residual.
Today, in this role
What's shifting in the work right now
The historical view above shows how this role has moved. This is the present-day detail: which AI tools are picking up which tasks, where the edge still is, and the natural directions this work can grow.
What's changing in your day
Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting — and what stays yours.
AI is sitting alongside you here
Oversee AI-automated data extraction and return population for W-2 and 1099-based 1040s: review returns pre-populated by TaxGPT or Thomson Reuters Ready to Review, which autonomously extract source-document data, enter it into Drake or UltraTax, and flag items needing human review — then apply professional judgment to validate, correct, and sign off.[4],[5]
Shift from data-entry execution to return-review expertise: develop judgment for the specific failure modes of AI-populated returns (misclassified income types, missed carryforward items, address-matching errors) and build speed at high-quality exception review rather than preparation from scratch.
AI is sitting alongside you here
Interview clients and collect source documents using AI-powered intake tools: configure Canopy Smart Intake to auto-generate personalized document request lists from prior-year data, pre-fill known client information, and auto-match uploaded files — then review AI-gathered intake packages for completeness before preparation begins.[15]
Redirect client-intake time toward advisory conversation: with AI handling document collection and pre-fill, use appointment time for forward-looking tax planning and relationship deepening rather than paper gathering — a shift that firms using Canopy report saves up to 20 minutes per client.
AI is sitting alongside you here
Manage client tax workflow from engagement to e-file using firm practice management software: configure Canopy Smart Prep to automatically trigger the handoff from completed intake to AI-prepared draft return, monitor team workloads and deadline queues, and maintain visibility across hundreds of returns during peak season without manual status tracking.[8],[16]
Develop practice management skills: preparers who master Canopy or Karbon workflow automation can handle significantly more returns per busy season with the same headcount. This is a transition from individual preparer to small-firm operator — the professional running the workflow rather than executing each step.
Where this role is heading
Natural next steps for someone with your foundation — not exits, evolutions.
A direction you could grow
Accountants and Auditors
Tax preparers already possess the foundational tax-law and financial-document literacy that accountants use daily. The delta is breadth: accountants handle audit, bookkeeping, financial reporting, and advisory work year-round rather than seasonally. Pursuing CPA licensure (150 credit hours + exam + experience requirements) elevates a preparer into the more resilient accountant tier, which BLS projects at 6% growth through 2034 — well above the flat/declining trajectory for non-credentialed preparers. The CPA-track transition is the highest-ROI credential investment available to a tax preparer.