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Farmers and ranchers

Official title Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers (SOC 11-9013)

In brief

In 2025, BLS counted 788,700 US farmers and ranchers, including the self-employed. Median pay was $89,900 a year in May 2025. The earliest figure here is a Census count of 3,127,715 from 1870, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for farmers and ranchers: Hybrid seed, chemical fertilizer and pesticides, 1930 to 1995.

Official statistic: latest count, pay.Researched context: earliest figure.

What the sources say

Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 3.4% from 2025 to 2035.

BLS Employment Projections 2025-35

Official statistic

AI exposure studies

  • 24.5% of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. Eloundou and others, 2023 Official statistic
  • 0.047 estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. Frey and Osborne, 2013 Official statistic

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35.

Last updated .

Cite this page
APA

Future History. (2026, October 31). Farmers and ranchers: jobs and pay since 1870 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/11-9013

Chicago

Future History. "Farmers and ranchers: jobs and pay since 1870." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 31, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/11-9013.

BibTeX

@misc{futurehistory_11_9013, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Farmers and ranchers: jobs and pay since 1870}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/11-9013}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-31. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }

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1700172517501775180018251850187519001925195019752000now
2026
Known then as Husbandman / planter
Known then as Farmer (owner or tenant) / farm manager
Known then as Farm operator / farmer and rancher / farm manager
Known then as Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers (SOC 11-9013)
Known today as Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers (SOC 11-9013)
Projected to still be called Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers (SOC 11-9013)
Data from 2025
US Employment
789K

National Employment Matrix total for 2025 from the BLS 2025-35 projections cycle. It counts all jobs in the occupation, including self-employed workers (66.9% of this occupation in 2025), so it is on a different basis from OEWS wage-and-salary estimates and is not a like-for-like point beside them.

Official statistic
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Median Annual Wage
$89,900

≈ $87,595 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)

Official statistic
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Beat · 1900

About 41 percent of the US workforce was employed in agriculture in 1900. By 2000 only 1.9 percent of the employed labor force worked in agriculture.

Beat · 1930

Off-farm work was already part of farm life: about 30 percent of farmers worked off the farm in 1930, and by 2000, 93 percent of farms earned some off-farm income.

Beat · 1933

The Agricultural Adjustment Act, the first "farm bill", set up the New Deal mix of commodity price and income supports for farmers.

Beat · 1935

The number of US farms peaked at 6.8 million in 1935, then fell sharply until the early 1970s. USDA counted 1.88 million farms in 2024.

Beat · 2022

The 2022 Census of Agriculture counted 3.4 million producers on 1.9 million farms; the number of farms fell 6.9 percent from 2017, and producers averaged 58.1 years of age. Producer counts include everyone involved in farm decisions, so they run far higher than the occupation counts on this timeline.

Beat · 2023

Family farms, where the operator and relatives own most of the business, made up about 96 percent of US farms and 83 percent of total production in 2023.

How to read this number

Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.

Official statistic: Copied by a script from a statistics agency table or a published study's table, not retyped by hand. BLS figures, ONS ASHE figures (UK pay and jobs) and the forecast and exposure tables are also re-checked against that table on every data run. Researched context: Researched from the cited source rather than copied from it by a script, so it is not machine-checked yet. Spot a mistake? Each figure has a “Report an error” link.

Cited forecasts · present → 2035

Will AI replace farmers and ranchers? What the research says

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.

What published forecasts say
Forecast change in the number of people doing this work, as published by each named source. Bars share one scale on every role, centred on zero and reaching the end at ±30%. Grey marks a small change, 3% or less either way.
  • BLS Employment Projections 2025-35
    Target year 2035
    -3.4%
    BLS National Employment Matrix, 2025-35 cycle, line for SOC 11-9013 (Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers): 788.7 thousand jobs in 2025, projected 762.2 thousand in 2035, a change of -26.5 thousand (-3.4%). Matrix employment counts all jobs in the occupation, including self-employed workers (66.9% of this occupation in 2025). The average for all occupations in this cycle is +3.5%.
    Official statisticReport an error
How exposed is this work to AI (research measures)
Scores as published by each study. Each row says what it measures. These measure what AI could technically do, not forecasts of jobs lost.
  • Eloundou et al. (2023), "GPTs are GPTs"
    2023 study · Share of tasks exposed to LLMs (β, human-rated)
    24.5%
    of tasks
    What this measures

    Published occupation-level exposure from the paper's occ_level.csv for O*NET-SOC 11-9013.00 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers. Shown: human-rated β = 0.245, the share of the occupation's tasks an LLM could do in at least half the time at equal quality, counting tasks that need LLM-powered software at half weight (β = E1 + 0.5 × E2). Other published measures for this occupation: human-rated α (LLM alone) 0.102 and γ (all LLM-assisted) 0.388; GPT-4-rated β 0.367. This measures how much of the work an LLM could touch, not how many jobs disappear.

    Official statisticReport an error
  • Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment"
    2013 study · Probability of computerisation (2013 model)
    0.047
    probability
    What this measures

    Published appendix value for SOC 2010 11-9013 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers: probability of computerisation 0.047, rank 137 of 702 (rank 1 is least computerisable). Frey and Osborne estimated in 2013, with a Gaussian-process classifier on O*NET variables, how likely the whole occupation is to be technically automatable over "some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two". It is a probability for the occupation, not a share of tasks and not a forecast of jobs lost.

    Official statisticReport an error
Today, in this role

What's changing day to day for farmers and ranchers

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you here Collect and record growth, production, and environmental data

Sources[2]

Where your edge is

AI is sitting alongside you here Manage nurseries that grow horticultural plants for sale…

to trade or retail customers, for display or exhibition, or for research.[2]

Where your edge is

AI is sitting alongside you here Direct and monitor trapping and spawning of fish…

, egg incubation, and fry rearing, applying knowledge of management and fish culturing techniques.[2]

Where your edge is

Tools of the era

How has the work of farmers and ranchers changed since 1831?

The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Mechanical reaper and steel plow

    Cyrus McCormick tested his horse-drawn reaper in Virginia in 1831, and after his patent lapsed rival makers multiplied, more than a hundred of them by 1850. With a reaper, grain could be cut when it was ready, in less time and with less labor. John Deere's plow, made in his Grand Detour, Illinois blacksmith shop by 1838, scoured clean in the sticky prairie soil that clogged older plows. Together they let one farm family work far more land, and they pulled farming west onto the prairie.

  • Land-grant colleges, homesteads and public farm research

    In 1862 Congress passed the Morrill Act, which funded state colleges to teach agriculture and the mechanic arts, and the Homestead Act, which offered surveyed public land free to families who would live on and farm it. The Hatch Act of 1887 and the Smith-Lever Act of 1914 further expanded the public role in agricultural research. Running a farm began to draw on public science and schooling, not only on what a family had learned for itself.

  • Gasoline tractor replaces horses and mules

    The Fordson, introduced in 1917, quickly became the most popular tractor in America. By 1960 they had millions of tractors and 3 million work animals. The 1954 Census of Agriculture found millions of horses and mules had left farms in just four years. USDA concludes that tractors had essentially replaced animal power by 1970, and with it went much of the hired and family labor that animal farming needed.

    Effect on the work

    Over the same years the share of the US workforce employed in agriculture fell steeply (USDA ERS). This is a description of the period, not a measured effect of the tractor alone.

  • Hybrid seed, chemical fertilizer and pesticides

    The first company to produce hybrid corn seed commercially was organized in 1926, and production took off in the early 1930s. By 1960, nearly all of US corn acres were planted with hybrid seed, which farmers had to buy fresh each year. Cheap chemical fertilizers and pesticides spread after 1945.

  • GPS guidance, precision agriculture and genetically engineered seed

    Genetically engineered seed for major field crops went on sale in 1996, and today most of US corn, upland cotton and soybeans are grown from GE varieties. In the same years farmers adopted yield maps, variable-rate application and GPS guidance, which began with lightbars in the mid-1990s.

    Effect on the work

    In a USDA sample of Midwestern corn fields (2010 and 2016), adopters of guidance systems worked fewer hours per acre than nonadopters. USDA cautions, in the same passage, that larger operations also tend to adopt other labor-saving practices and equipment, so such gaps are not mainly attributable to one technology; an earlier USDA study found no significant difference in labor hours per bushel for guidance adopters.

  • Farm data platforms, smartphones, autonomy and AI

    Running a farm has become a data job as well as a field job. Telematics and software now handle routine farm record keeping, and guidance and section control already automate much of the steering. USDA cautions that AI and machine learning have not yet been deployed at scale on farms, so their effect on the work is still unproven.

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Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers employment and pay by year

On record since1700
Latest US employment788,700 (2025)Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025Official statisticReport an error
Latest US median pay$89,900 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Outlook-3.4% by 2035Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35Official statisticReport an error
View all 27 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers in the US: employment and pay by year, with sources
YearUS employmentAnnual pay (median unless marked)SourceReport
18703,127,715n/aDecennial Census 1870[1] Researched contextReport
18804,301,412n/aDecennial Census 1880[1] Researched contextReport
18905,382,037n/aDecennial Census 1890[1] Researched contextReport
19005,763,000n/aDecennial Census 1900[2] Researched contextReport
19106,163,000n/aDecennial Census 1910[2] Researched contextReport
19206,442,000n/aDecennial Census 1920[2] Researched contextReport
19306,032,000n/aDecennial Census 1930[2] Researched contextReport
19405,362,000n/aDecennial Census 1940[2] Researched contextReport
19504,375,000n/aDecennial Census 1950[2] Researched contextReport
19602,526,000n/aDecennial Census 1960[2] Researched contextReport
19701,350,000n/aDecennial Census 1970[2] Researched contextReport
2010n/a$60,750BLS OEWS May 2010[4] Official statisticReport
2011n/a$64,660BLS OEWS May 2011[4] Official statisticReport
2012n/a$69,300BLS OEWS May 2012[4] Official statisticReport
2013n/a$70,110BLS OEWS May 2013[4] Official statisticReport
2014n/a$68,050BLS OEWS May 2014[4] Official statisticReport
2015n/a$64,170BLS OEWS May 2015[4] Official statisticReport
2016n/a$66,360BLS OEWS May 2016[4] Official statisticReport
2017n/a$69,620BLS OEWS May 2017[4] Official statisticReport
2018n/a$67,950BLS OEWS May 2018[4] Official statisticReport
2019n/a$71,160BLS OEWS May 2019[4] Official statisticReport
2020n/a$68,090BLS OEWS May 2020[4] Official statisticReport
2021n/a$73,060BLS OEWS May 2021[4] Official statisticReport
2022n/a$75,760BLS OEWS May 2022[4] Official statisticReport
2023n/a$83,770BLS OEWS May 2023[4] Official statisticReport
2024n/a$87,980BLS OEWS May 2024[4] Official statisticReport
2025788,700$89,900BLS Employment Projections 2025 (employment)[3] Official statisticBLS OEWS May 2025 (pay)[4] Official statisticReport
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